Decision support for climate-resilient water management in the Shabelle River Basin
Through the RESTORE project, the UNEP–DHI Centre developed a basin-scale decision-support framework to inform the rehabilitation and long-term operation of Somalia's Jowhar off-stream storage system
Spanning approximately 297,000 km², the Shabelle River Basin is a vital river system, supporting agriculture, livelihoods and water security in Somalia’s south-central regions. Under the RESTORE* project, the UNEP–DHI Partnership – Centre on Water and Environment developed a basin-scale water resources modelling and decision-support framework to help Somalia's Ministry of Energy and Water Resources assess climate change impacts and make evidence-based water management decisions. The framework supports the rehabilitation and long-term operation of the Jowhar off-stream storage system under the Jowhar Off-stream Storage Programme (JOSP), contributing to improved water security and climate resilience for 1.65 million people in Somalia's Middle and Lower Shabelle regions.
*The RESTORE (Restoring the Riverine Ecosystems for Climate Adaptation) project is funded by the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) and implemented by the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) in collaboration with Hirshabelle and South-West State, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the International Organization for Migration (IOM).
Challenge
Managing the Shabelle River Basin is becoming increasingly challenging as climate change alters rainfall patterns and intensifies floods and droughts, while ageing water infrastructure adds further uncertainty. Somalia's Ministry of Energy and Water Resources (MoEWR) needed robust, decision-ready evidence to answer critical questions:
How will climate change affect future water availability?
Will the rehabilitated Jowhar off-stream storage reservoir remain effective and climate resilient under future climate conditions?
How should the reservoir be operated to balance flood management, water supply reliability and environmental flows?
How can competing water demands from communities, agriculture and ecosystems be balanced under a changing climate?
More than a piece of infrastructure, the rehabilitated Jowhar off-stream storage reservoir and its associated irrigation system will become a key flood management and water allocation asset. To maximise its benefits, the Ministry must continuously adapt reservoir operations and water allocation decisions amid climate uncertainty, growing water demand and institutional capacity constraints.
Partners:
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
Ministry of Energy and Water Resources, Somalia (MoEWR)
Location:
Shabelle River Basin, Somalia
Related SDG(s):
SDG 2: End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture
SDG 6: Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all
SDG 13: Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts
SDG 15: Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss
Technology:
Solution
Somalia authorities partnered with FAO and UNEP under the RESTORE project to strengthen understanding of climate risks and support the rehabilitation of the Jowhar off-stream storage system. Using MIKE HYDRO Basin and MIKE OPERATIONS, the UNEP–DHI Centre developed a basin-scale hydrological modelling and decision-support framework that:
Combines climate projections, water resources modelling and local knowledge into a shared, evidence-based understanding of the Shabelle River Basin
Evaluates future climate and water management scenarios to test alternative reservoir operating strategies and their implications
Converts complex climate and hydrological science into practical decision support, helping the Ministry make informed water management and investment decisions under uncertainty
Beyond the technology, the UNEP–DHI Centre worked closely with the Ministry to strengthen local capacity through training and knowledge transfer. The result is a practical, long-term capability that supports climate-resilient operation of the rehabilitated Jowhar off-stream storage system while helping protect communities and ecosystems from future climate variability and change.
Results
Previously, decisions on water management in the Shabelle River Basin were constrained by uncertainty about how climate change would affect river flows, water availability and infrastructure performance. The Ministry can now use the UNEP–DHI decision-support framework to assess future conditions, compare management options and understand trade-offs between flood management, water supply reliability and environmental needs.
The modelling indicated that:
Climate change is likely to shift water management priorities towards flood risk management, river corridor planning and adaptive reservoir operations, while maintaining the system’s vital role in balancing agricultural water supply, irrigation and ecosystem needs
All three climate scenarios modelled pointed to the same overall direction, indicating increased precipitation, higher river discharge, stronger dry-season flows and more frequent high-flow conditions
These insights provide a stronger foundation for evidence-based planning, rehabilitation and long-term operation of the Jowhar off-stream storage system under JOSP, contributing to improved water security and climate resilience for 1.65 million people and the ecosystems of Somalia's Middle and Lower Shabelle regions.
Watch this video for an overview of the Jowhar Offstream Storage Programme (JOSP): ©FAO
About the project
RESTORE (Restoring the Riverine Ecosystems for Climate Adaptation) is part of the Jowhar Offstream Storage Programme (JOSP), a USD 123 million programme that seeks to rehabilitate a large irrigation scheme aiming to reduce flood risk and mitigate drought in Hirshabelle and South-West State, benefiting 1.65 million people.
The RESTORE project is funded by the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO). The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) is the lead implementing agency, working with the Federal Government of Somalia, Hirshabelle State, South-West State and UN partners, including the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).
Through the UNEP–DHI Partnership – Centre on Water and Environment, UNEP delivers the project's technical water resources modelling and decision-support component as part of a larger environmental programme portfolio.
