Navigation risk assessments provide a defensible basis for confident redevelopment decisions and regulatory approval in a complex, multi-user waterway

Originally built in the 1930s to serve the largest ocean liners of its time, the Manhattan Cruise Terminal has since undergone incremental upgrades. Today, this iconic terminal remains strategically positioned to serve over 60 million people living within 300 miles of the city. Its core infrastructure, however, is largely unchanged, now operating within constraints shaped by a very different era of infrastructure needs, vessel size and public waterfront use. The New York City Economic Development Corporation (NYCEDC) is therefore conducting a master plan aimed at modernising the terminal and supporting future cruise growth. 

NYCEDC contracted Hatch to lead a navigation safety risk assessment and manage the overall technical study. Hatch engaged DHI as a specialist in navigation assessment to provide targeted expertise in vessel behaviour, navigational risk and operational feasibility. DHI’s assessment translated complex dynamics present in the Hudson River into a clear, defensible technical narrative, strengthening regulatory and stakeholder confidence and supporting the safe progression of the redevelopment.

 

Challenge

NYCEDC’s master plan for the Manhattan Cruise Terminal aims to modernise outdated, ageing infrastructure, accommodate current and future cruise ships and create a more accessible waterfront.

 

The redevelopment aims to meet the needs of the industry and the surrounding neighbourhood. It requires demolishing existing piers and extending new piers into the Hudson River. This triggered the need for formal regulatory approval for federal channel deauthorisation in compliance with U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) and Water Resources Development Act (WRDA) requirements. 

As a heavily used, mixed-traffic waterway, the Hudson River supports ferries, commercial vessels and recreational users, meaning any change in infrastructure or operations could affect navigation safety and efficiency. The key challenge was to demonstrate that the redevelopment would not compromise safe and efficient operations in the Hudson River or at the proposed terminal. 

 

Solution

NYCEDC appointed Hatch to lead the Navigation Safety Risk Assessment, with DHI brought in early to support navigation analysis of current conditions and future operations for the proposed expanded terminal. 

 

Solution highlights:

• Vessel traffic and operational impact analysis: Analysed existing ferry, commercial, tug, recreational and other background traffic patterns, and assessed impacts from construction phases and expansion 
• Vessel wake assessment: Modelled ship-induced wakes to assess effects from pier extension-imposed changes to overall traffic density, and from the introduction of next-generation cruise vessels
• Navigation simulations: Simulated berthing, unberthing and manoeuvring scenarios for existing and next-generation cruise ships, including tug-assisted operations under typical and extreme environmental conditions to assess operational feasibility
• Quantified navigational risk: Performed AIS-based risk analysis for collisions, allisions and groundings using MIKE SIREN, and developed risk mitigation measures with stakeholders
• Stakeholder engagement support: Supported joint sessions with NYCEDC and Hatch, engaging regulators, operators and waterway users, and incorporating feedback into the assessment for safe and inclusive planning

DHI’s approach integrates real-world vessel behaviour, high-resolution AIS data and advanced modelling into a coherent assessment of a complex waterway. Key elements included MIKE SIREN, an agent-based navigational risk modelling platform enabling precise estimation of navigational risk across current and future scenarios, and the DHI Navigation Simulator Centre, where detailed vessel simulations were tested under guidance from DHI’s in-house Master Mariner.

 

Together, these tools provided an end-to-end assessment linking modelling, simulation and stakeholder input to support safe and informed decision-making for the proposed expansion.