Electricity company strengthens flood risk management and water flow forecasting with integrated decision support system 

Hydropower dams play a pivotal role in harnessing renewable energy from flowing water. The construction and operation of these dams can also impact flooding — a significant challenge worldwide, including in Uganda. To optimise hydropower production, the Uganda government, through the Uganda Electricity Generation Company Limited (UEGCL), has implemented a DHI-led decision-support system (DSS) to forecast inflow to Lake Victoria and in the Nile river. In a partnership with French engineering company ISL Ingénierie, DHI led the modelling work and the DSS development for the project, with the support of French development agency, Agence Française de Développement. This project was part of the EU-funded Digital Energy Facility programme, which supports innovative solutions for the energy sector.

Challenge

Over 75% of Uganda’s hydropower capacity comes from the Nile river, making the optimisation of water resources a critical issue. Uganda Electricity Generation Company Limited (UEGCL) operates three of the largest hydropower plants in the country — Owen Falls Complex, Isimba and Karuma — accounting for over 70% of the market share. However, managing the river’s water flow is a major challenge, especially with seasonal fluctuations and extreme weather events. The absence of an early flood warning system further compounds the risk to both dam infrastructure and public safety. Additionally, climate change projections indicate an increase in the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall in Uganda, which is expected to intensify flood risks. UEGCL faces the challenge of balancing the optimisation of hydropower generation with the need to safeguard infrastructure and surrounding communities from the growing threat of floods and dam safety issues amid a changing climate.

Solution

DHI developed a solution to enhance hydropower management along the Nile river. The project began with data collection and site visits to four key hydropower plants, gathering essential site-specific data to inform the development of models.

The team collected both local and global datasets, including Earth observation products and near real-time information on water and weather conditions. This data was crucial in building a comprehensive understanding of the region’s water dynamics.

Using MIKE HYDRO Basin, DHI developed a water balance and allocation model to make short-term and seasonal forecasts. A flood model was also created to simulate hydrological conditions downstream of Lake Victoria. To support hydropower optimisation, the team built a hydropower operation and energy optimisation model using ISL Ingénierie’s software.

These models were integrated into a decision support system (DSS) using DHI’s platform, enabling stakeholders to visualise real-time results for flood forecasting, water flow and energy production. The DSS, based on MIKE OPERATIONS technology, enables automatic download and processing of earth observation and numerical weather prediction data to provide real-time, forecast and scenario results to improve decision-making.

Training sessions and workshops were conducted to ensure local teams had the skills to operate and maintain the system, ensuring its long-term success.

Results

This solution has greatly improved decision-making, equipping stakeholders with the tools to make informed, proactive choices about water resource management and hydropower operations. The project has strengthened the capacity to manage water resources and hydropower production, while also enhancing preparedness for potential flood and drought events in the region.